Search results for "dynamic Bayesian network"

Modeling Snow Dynamics Using a Bayesian Network

2015

In this paper we propose a novel snow accumulation and melt model, formulated as a Dynamic Bayesian Network DBN. We encode uncertainty explicitly and train the DBN using Monte Carlo analysis, carried out with a deterministic hydrology model under a wide range of plausible parameter configurations. The trained DBN was tested against field observations of snow water equivalents SWE. The results indicate that our DBN can be used to reason about uncertainty, without doing resampling from the deterministic model. In all brevity, the DBN's ability to reproduce the mean of the observations was similar to what could be obtained with the deterministic hydrology model, but with a more realistic repre…

A Bayesian-optimal principle for learner-friendly adaptation in learning games

2010

Abstract Adaptive learning games should provide opportunities for the student to learn as well as motivate playing until goals have been reached. In this paper, we give a mathematically rigorous treatment of the problem in the framework of Bayesian decision theory. To quantify the opportunities for learning, we assume that the learning tasks that yield the most information about the current skills of the student, while being desirable for measurement in their own right, would also be among those that are efficient for learning. Indeed, optimization of the expected information gain appears to naturally avoid tasks that are exceedingly demanding or exceedingly easy as their results are predic…

Towards an Assembly Support System with Dynamic Bayesian Network

2022

Due to the new technological advancements and the adoption of Industry 4.0 concepts, the manufacturing industry is now, more than ever, in a continuous transformation. This work analyzes the possibility of using dynamic Bayesian networks to predict the next assembly steps within an assembly assistance training system. The goal is to develop a support system to assist the human workers in their manufacturing activities. The evaluations were performed on a dataset collected from an experiment involving students. The experimental results show that dynamic Bayesian networks are appropriate for such a purpose, since their prediction accuracy was among the highest on new patterns. Our dynamic Bay…

A Spatio-temporal Probabilistic Model of Hazard and Crowd Dynamics in Disasters for Evacuation Planning

2013

Published version of a chapter in the book: Recent Trends in Applied Artificial Intelligence. Also available from the publisher at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-38577-3_7 Managing the uncertainties that arise in disasters – such as ship fire – can be extremely challenging. Previous work has typically focused either on modeling crowd behavior or hazard dynamics, targeting fully known environments. However, when a disaster strikes, uncertainty about the nature, extent and further development of the hazard is the rule rather than the exception. Additionally, crowd and hazard dynamics are both intertwined and uncertain, making evacuation planning extremely difficult. To address this chal…

A methodology for the semi-automatic generation of analytical models in manufacturing

2018

International audience; Advanced analytics can enable manufacturing engineers to improve product quality and achieve equipment and resource efficiency gains using large amounts of data collected during manufacturing. Manufacturing engineers, however, often lack the expertise to apply advanced analytics, relying instead on frequent consultations with data scientists. Furthermore, collaborations between manufacturing engineers and data scientists have resulted in highly specialized applications that are not relevant to broader use cases. The manufacturing industry can benefit from the techniques applied in these collaborations if they can be generalized for a wide range of manufacturing probl…

A Context-Aware System for Ambient Assisted Living

2017

In the near future, the world's population will be characterized by an increasing average age, and consequently, the number of people requiring for a special household assistance will dramatically rise. In this scenario, smart homes will significantly help users to increase their quality of life, while maintaining a great level of autonomy. This paper presents a system for Ambient Assisted Living (AAL) capable of understanding context and user's behavior by exploiting data gathered by a pervasive sensor network. The knowledge inferred by adopting a Bayesian knowledge extraction approach is exploited to disambiguate the collected observations, making the AAL system able to detect and predict…

An Ambient Intelligence System for Assisted Living

2017

Nowadays, the population's average age is constantly increasing, and thus the need for specialized home assistance is on the rise. Smart homes especially tailored to meet elderly and disabled people's needs can help them maintaining their autonomy, whilst ensuring their safety and well-being. This paper proposes a complete context-aware system for Ambient Assisted Living (AAL), which infers user's actions and context, analyzing its past and current behavior to detect anomalies and prevent possible emergencies. The proposed system exploits Dynamic Bayesian Networks to merge raw data coming from heterogeneous sensors and infer user's behavior and health conditions. A rule-based reasoner is ab…

An Adaptive Bayesian System for Context-Aware Data Fusion in Smart Environments

2017

The adoption of multi-sensor data fusion techniques is essential to effectively merge and analyze heterogeneous data collected by multiple sensors, pervasively deployed in a smart environment. Existing literature leverages contextual information in the fusion process, to increase the accuracy of inference and hence decision making in a dynamically changing environment. In this paper, we propose a context-aware, self-optimizing, adaptive system for sensor data fusion, based on a three-tier architecture. Heterogeneous data collected by sensors at the lowest tier are combined by a dynamic Bayesian network at the intermediate tier, which also integrates contextual information to refine the infe…

Path Modeling and Retrieval in Distributed Video Surveillance Databases

2012

We propose a framework for querying a distributed database of video surveillance data in order to retrieve a set of likely paths of a person moving in the area under surveillance. In our framework, each camera of the surveillance system locally pro- cesses the data and stores video sequences in a storage unit and the metadata for each detected person in the distributed database. A pedestrian’s path is formulated as a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) to model the dependencies between subsequent observa- tions of the person as he makes his way through the camera net- work. We propose a tool by which the analyst can pose queries about where a certain person appeared while moving in the site duri…

Multisensor Data Fusion in Pervasive Artificial Intelligence Systems

Intelligent systems designed to manage smart environments exploit numerous sensing and actuating devices, pervasively deployed so as to remain invisible to users and subtly learn their preferences and satisfy their needs. Nowadays, such systems are constantly evolving and becoming ever more complex, so it is increasingly difficult to develop them successfully. A possible solution to this problem might lie in delegating certain decisions to the machines themselves, making them more autonomous and able to self-configure and self-manage. This work presents a multi-tier architecture for a complete pervasive system capable of understanding the state of the surrounding environment, as well as usi…